Overview and trend of China's real estate industry

The development overview and trend analysis of China's real estate industry in 2018 predict that capital investment will return to rationality in 2019

the development overview and trend analysis of China's real estate industry in 2018 predict that capital investment will return to rationality in 2019, paint,

the development overview and trend analysis of China's real estate industry in 2018 predict that capital investment in 2019 will return to rationality

January 22, 2019

the overall performance of many indicators of the real estate industry in 2018 is better than expected

1. The growth rate of national real estate development investment. In 2018, the national real estate development investment was 12026.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5% over the previous year. The growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points over the month, and increased by 2.5 percentage points over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the residential investment was 8519.2 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and up 4 percentage points from the previous year. Residential investment accounts for 70.8% of real estate development investment

statistics on the growth rate of national real estate development investment in 2018

2. Market demand: the sales area of commercial housing narrowed slightly

according to the statistical data of the "Analysis Report on market demand forecast and investment strategic planning of China's real estate industry" released by the forward looking Industry Research Institute, the sales area of commercial housing in 2018 was 1716.54 million square meters, an increase of 1.3% over the previous year, The growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points from the month before and 6.4 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the sales area of residential buildings increased by 2.2%, the sales area of office buildings decreased by 8.3%, and the sales area of commercial business houses decreased by 6.8%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 149973 billion yuan, an increase of 12.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the month, and a decrease of 1.5 percentage points over the previous year. Among them, residential sales increased by 14.7%, office sales decreased by 2.6%, and commercial sales increased by 0.7%

since the rapid growth of commercial housing sales area in 2016, the scale of real estate sales has repeatedly reached new highs. In 2015, the sales area of commercial housing was 1284.95 million square meters, and the sales volume was 8728.1 billion yuan. In 2016, the sales area of commercial housing was 157.349 million square meters, and the sales volume reached 11762.7 billion yuan. In 2017, the sales area of commercial housing was 1694.08 million square meters, and the sales volume was 13370.1 billion yuan

statistics and growth of sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in China in 2018

3. Statistical analysis of sales area and sales of commercial housing in various regions in 2018

third tier cities have become the concentrated areas of this round of housing price rise and sales area rise. In 2018, from the perspective of the national market, the peak period brought about by policies such as shed reform in second and third tier cities still exists, some cities are still in the period of destocking, and the rise in house prices is still the mainstream. Especially in the central and western regions, the increase in sales area and sales volume is far higher than the average increase in the market

the eastern region, which has always been the main sales force, has seen a decline in the sales area of real estate. In 2018, the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern region was 676.41 million square meters, a decrease of 5.0% over the previous year, and the sales volume was 7925.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5%. The sales area of commercial housing in the central region was 506.95 million square meters, an increase of 6.8%, and the sales volume was 3384.8 billion yuan, an increase of 18.1%. The sales area of commercial houses in the western region was 453.96 million square meters, an increase of 6.9%, and the sales volume was 3112. On all experimental machines, due to the stable and reliable performance of mechanical protective devices, 700 million yuan, an increase of 23.4%

sales area, sales statistics and growth of commercial housing in various regions in 2018

4. Market supply: the growth rate of completed housing area fell back, and the growth rate of land purchase area of real estate development enterprises fell

the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8223 million square meters, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year and an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous year. The new construction area of houses was 209.342 million square meters, an increase of 17.2%, an increase of 10.2 percentage points over the previous year. The completed area of houses was 935.5 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over the previous year. In terms of land purchase, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 29.142 million square meters, an increase of 14.2% over the previous year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous year; The land transaction price was 1610.2 billion yuan, which allowed the 10 prefix to move downward and then fell behind in the tensile test, an increase of 18.0%, down 31.4 percentage points from the previous year

statistics and growth of land purchase area and land transaction price of Chinese real estate development enterprises in 2018

it is predicted that the investment of real estate enterprises will return to rationality in 2019

the analysis of the report predicts that in 2019, the overall real estate development investment will enter a new round of "shifting period", which will be reflected in the decline of sales, the decline of growth rate, the stabilization of land and the stabilization of confidence

in 2019, the investment of real estate enterprises will become more rational from rapid expansion, and will be optimized in terms of land acquisition pace and development speed. Some real estate enterprises will focus on quality from scale. The growth of both the sales area and amount of commercial housing in 2018 will be difficult to reappear in 2019

it is expected that the growth rate of many national indicators will fall in the first quarter of 2019. In the short term, the regulation policy will not be relaxed, and the national real estate market will continue to cool down. It is expected that the market will remain stable and decline in the next few months, and the growth rate of many indicators will decline